Ottawa Real Estate: 2025 Insights and Findings
The year 2025 in the Ottawa housing market demonstrated notable adaptability despite changing economic conditions. The market opened with tentative hope, gained momentum in the spring, and concluded with the usual winter deceleration. Throughout this cycle, demand for properties priced under $2 million was consistently strong relative to the available supply. Conversely, the luxury segment experienced fluctuating activity, characterized by periods of robust sales followed by lulls as buyers evaluated pricing. Below is a summary of the year's defining trends and an outlook for 2026.
Analysis of the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in Ottawa for 2025 demonstrates a significant shift in market momentum, moving between buyer and seller friendly conditions. The city's market is typically considered balanced when the SNLR is between 45% and 65%.
Annual and Peak Market Conditions:
Freehold Homes: Averaged 59.1% for the year, positioning them as comfortably balanced but leaning toward a seller's market. Conditions peaked dramatically in December at 104.8%, where more homes were sold than were newly listed.
Condos: Maintained a more neutral annual average of 47.6%. However, like freeholds, they decisively shifted into a seller’s market in December, reaching 70.1%.
Luxury Segment: Overall, the luxury market was a clear buyer’s market with an annual average of 23.6%. It briefly entered balanced territory in November at 55.6% as high-end buyers capitalized on one of a kind, well-priced opportunities.
Quarterly Market Trends:
Quarterly averages highlight when these shifts clustered:
Q4 (Strongest Period): This quarter was the strongest across all segments, driven by sustained demand coupled with fewer listings. The SNLR was 76.3% for freeholds, 52.8% for condos, and 37.4% for luxury homes.
Q3 (Softest Period): The market was softest during Q3, as the summer inventory outpaced sales activity.
These SNLR patterns underscore the profound influence of supply levels and seasonality on the bargaining power across Ottawa’s three distinct price tiers.
Under $2 Million: A Balanced Market Most of the Year
The housing market was once again dominated by homes priced under $2 million. Market activity saw freehold transactions peak in May at roughly 1154, while condominiums reached their highest volume that same month near 364 deals. Following this high, sales slowed considerably by December, dropping to 347 freeholds and 143 condos, a decrease that reflects typical seasonal patterns. Properties under $2 million showed significant price variation, from a low of $190k for entry-level condos up to $1.98M for more upscale freehold homes. While the overall market was focused on this range, the number of properties trading above $1 million increased modestly. This luxury segment saw a high of 196 freehold sales in May, maintaining a yearly average of about 106 transactions. Buyers in the $1M to $2M segment prioritized location, condition, and precise pricing, meaning homes meeting all three criteria tended to receive quick offers, whereas ambitiously priced properties often lingered on the market.
Luxury Market Over $2 Million: Peaks and Valleys
The high-end real estate market in Ottawa experienced significant fluctuations throughout 2025. The year started strong with three luxury sales in January, dipped to two in February, and then saw a major rebound to 11 transactions in March, indicating renewed buyer confidence following the winter season. This elevated activity peaked in the late spring/early summer, with May and June collectively recording 32 sales. As the year progressed, activity declined, concluding with just two sales in December.
Despite the volatility in sales volume, prices trended upward. The median list price climbed from approximately $2.3 million in the spring to $3.7 million by the end of the year. Concurrently, the time properties spent on the market decreased significantly, with the median marketing time dropping from nearly 100 days in January to just 26 days in December.
The top-tier of the market was defined by four exceptional properties that achieved the highest prices of 2025. Two sales occurred in late summer: 113 Grandview Road in Crystal Bay, a five-bedroom waterfront estate, sold for $5.04 million in August, and 39 Winding Way in Barrhaven, a newly constructed four-bedroom modern home, also sold that month for $4.6 million. The late-year market featured 421 Lansdowne Road N in Rockcliffe Park, which went under contract in October for approximately $4.42 million, and 24 Clemow Avenue in the Glebe, which finalized the year with a December sale near $4.3 million. These four transactions demonstrate that while overall luxury activity slowed and inventory increased, buyers remained willing to pay premium prices for truly exceptional properties.
Reading the Market
National home resales stagnated since midsummer, a trend reported by RBC Economics in December, due to high supply in Ontario and British Columbia, which has kept prices down. In contrast, western and Prairie markets, specifically Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon, saw sales rise, while Toronto and Hamilton lagged. RBC predicts this regional divergence will persist, anticipating a slow national recovery contingent on future rate cuts and an improved job market. Scotiabank Economics reported a 0.6% dip in Canadian home sales in November despite a decrease in new listings, with the national sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) sitting around 52%. They also cautioned that high levels of housing starts coupled with slower population growth could lead to a prolonged period of excess supply, particularly in the Ontario market.
Economic Context
Following a series of rate cuts beginning in mid-2024, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on December 10, 2025, citing solid Q3 GDP, a 6.5% unemployment rate, and near-target inflation. Policymakers signalled rates were appropriate, depending on inflation's return to target. Economists expect no further changes until at least 2027, given the resilient labour market.
This meant stable borrowing costs but persistent affordability issues for buyers. Earlier rate relief boosted mid-range sales, but high prices and debt limited overall demand. Luxury sellers faced longer marketing times. Consumers remained value-conscious: homes under $2M with strong fundamentals sold quickly, while overpriced listings struggled.
Outlook
Ultimately, the 2026 market is anticipated to be a divided one: the sub-$2 million bracket will likely sustain steady, balanced conditions, while the luxury sector will favour buyers until confidence or inventory levels shift. While national forecasts indicate a cautious recovery, Ottawa's strong fundamentals are poised to maintain steady demand. Success for sellers will hinge on strategic preparation and pricing, while buyers may find a unique window of opportunity before a potential widespread market acceleration.
| 2025 | Ottawa Signed Contracts Contracts Signed Over $2 Million |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Address | View | Sold Price | Details |
| 1 |
113 Grandview Road Ottawa, Ontario (Crystal Bay) |
🔗 | $5.04 M | 5 Bed / 6 Bath |
| 2 |
39 Winding Way Ottawa, Ontario (Barrhaven) |
🔗 | $4.60 M | 4 Bed / 5 Bath |
| 3 |
421 Lansdowne Road N Ottawa, Ontario (Rockcliffe Park) |
🔗 | $4.42 M | 5 Bed / 5 Bath |
| 4 |
24 Clemow Avenue Ottawa, Ontario (Glebe) |
🔗 | $4.30 M | 5 Bed / 6 Bath |
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