Ottawa Real Estate: January 2026 Insights & Findings
With the holidays behind us and a new year underway, January typically establishes the market's trajectory. This month, the market for homes priced under $2 million showed balance and stability, a trend supported by the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR). For reference, an SNLR between 45% and 65% indicates a balanced market in Ottawa. Conversely, the luxury sector is currently showing a notable slowdown based on the data. However, this could be due to the luxury market usually starting later in the year, and we will monitor its progress in the coming months. The market sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive. With the current easing cycle providing a stable environment for motivated buyers, well-priced properties are consistently selling efficiently.
Key January Numbers:
Freehold Homes: The market is currently balanced, with a sales-to-new-listing ratio of 46.09%. A total of 371 contracts were closed, spanning a price range of $387,500 to $1.96 million, including 30 sales that exceeded $1 million.
Condos: A total of 156 contracts were finalized, with prices ranging from $212,100 up to $1 million, including a single sale exceeding the $1 million mark. The market is currently characterized as a soft buyer's market, evidenced by a sales-to-new-listing ratio of 34.51%.
Luxury Segment: The luxury real estate market currently holds 72 active listings, with a median list price of $2.55 million and an average of only eight days on the market. Sales activity includes one contract exceeding $2 million. At the present sales velocity, this inventory would require approximately 72 months to be absorbed, even with the addition of three new listings.
Under $2 Million: A Balanced Start to the Year
The market remains dominated by homes priced under $2 million. In January, there were 371 freehold sales, with prices spanning from $387,500 to $1.96 million. A sign of sustained interest in the upper mid-range is the thirty sales that exceeded the $1 million mark. With 805 new freehold listings introduced during the month, the market is currently balanced, as indicated by a sales-to-new-listing ratio of 46.09%. While this ratio is lower than the 59% average recorded throughout 2025, it still signifies healthy demand. This balance gives buyers more choices and room for negotiation.
The condominium market saw 156 contracts executed, with prices ranging from $212,100 to $1 million. This price distribution highlights the market's strong focus on mid-range properties, as only one condo sale exceeded the million-dollar threshold. With 452 new condo listings introduced, the sales-to-new-listing ratio reached 34.51%. This metric places the condo segment firmly in buyer's-market territory. However, strong inventory levels suggest that sales momentum could accelerate if sellers adjust their price expectations to better match buyer budgets.
Luxury Market Over $2 Million: A Sleepy Opening
January's luxury market activity can be summarized by a single notable sale: the 6-bed, 6-bath estate at 211 Northcote Place in Rockcliffe Park, which quickly went under contract after only eight days on the market at a final asking price of $2.55 million. This isolated transaction stands in stark contrast to the higher volume of sales seen in the fall, which is likely a reflection of the seasonal slowdown common at the high end. It's important to note that the luxury market often sees a delayed start to the year, rather than a strong bounce back immediately following the holidays, which may account for the current low numbers.
Meanwhile, supply continues to grow. Seventy-two luxury listings were available in January, with three new listings added. While the median list price for this new inventory was $2.497 million, the overall sales-to-new-listing ratio remains a very low 1.39%, highlighting the scarcity of currently active buyers. This early in the year, buyers are in a strong position for negotiation and have the advantage of time. Sellers, on the other hand, must present properties that are both exceptional and competitively priced to capture buyer attention.
The top new listings in January illustrate the types of properties entering the segment: 424 Avondale Avenue in Westboro (4 beds, 5 baths) listed at $2.698 million, and 121 Macdonald Street in the Golden Triangle (4 beds, 4 baths) listed at $2.349 million. Both homes are in desirable locations but will face the challenge of standing out among the plentiful competition.
Reading the Market
National housing data confirms a slow start to 2026, according to RBC Economics. Key factors driving this slowdown include persistent affordability issues, economic uncertainty, and a loosening job market.
Across Canada, December saw a 2.7% drop in home resales and a 0.3% dip in the MLS Home Price Index. Price weakness was most evident in Ontario and British Columbia, which currently have high housing supply. In contrast to these trends, Quebec, Saskatchewan, and the Atlantic provinces managed to record slight gains.
CREA's recent data reflects continued market balance. In December, national sales saw a minor dip of 2.7%, while new listings decreased by 2%. The sales-to-new-listings ratio settled at 52.3%, a level considered balanced and close to the historical average. Inventory slightly rose to 4.5 months but remains tighter than historical norms. CREA anticipates a modest pickup in activity in the near term, driven by a pool of pent-up demand entering the market amid stable interest rates.
Economic Context
The Bank of Canada has maintained a steady monetary policy, holding its target overnight rate at 2.25% following its first 2026 meeting. This decision is viewed as appropriate due to modest economic growth and easing inflationary pressures. The Bank cited stabilizing labour conditions, a return to near-target inflation, and ongoing fiscal support as factors that have diminished the need for further rate cuts.
RBC Economics concurs with this "clear hold" and anticipates the policy rate will remain at 2.25% throughout the year. They suggest that slower GDP growth projections and persistent trade uncertainty make a near-term shift toward higher rates unlikely.
Regarding the housing market, forecasts remain cautious. RBC analysts expect a gradual broader recovery, noting that the impact of previous rate cuts has largely subsided. While improved labour market conditions may slowly attract buyers, significant affordability challenges, particularly in Ontario, are expected to limit price growth. Similarly, TD Economics projects only modest gains in 2026, driven by pent-up demand, and warns that subdued economic activity and a soft labour market will moderate the pace of recovery.
Outlook
The Ottawa real estate market enters 2026 with a mood of cautious optimism. The market under $2 million is generally balanced, indicating that buyers and sellers have realistic, aligned expectations. Given the current stability in mortgage rates and robust employment figures, the mid-range housing sector is projected to maintain smooth transaction volumes. While the condo segment may experience slower movement, strategically priced units are expected to gain traction as the year progresses.
In contrast, the luxury sector faces distinct challenges. A surplus of available properties and a lack of urgency among high-end buyers suggest that sales will be limited to exceptional homes with highly competitive pricing. Activity in this top-tier segment is expected to remain subdued during the first quarter, with a modest increase anticipated in the spring.
On the national stage, a gradual recovery is the consensus forecast. Experts predict that consistent mortgage rates, slow but steady economic expansion, and pent-up buyer demand will contribute to a modest rise in sales later in the year. However, elevated borrowing costs compared to pre-pandemic levels and the persistently high cost of living will keep buyers highly focused on value.
Sellers across all markets, especially those in the luxury bracket, should focus on immaculate property preparation and strategic, realistic pricing to successfully engage a discerning pool of prospective buyers.
| January 2026 | Ottawa Signed Contracts Contracts Signed Over $2 Million |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Address | View | Last Asking Price | Details |
| 1 |
211 Northcote Place, Ottawa, Ontario K1M 0Y7 (Rockcliffe Park) |
🔗 | $2,550,000 | 6 Bed / 6 Bath |
| January 2026 | Ottawa New Listings New Listings Over $2 Million |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Address | View | List Price | Details |
| 1 |
424 Avondale Avenue, Ottawa, Ontario K2A 0S3 (Westboro) |
🔗 | $2,698,000 | 4 Bed / 5 Bath |
| 2 |
121 Macdonald Street, Ottawa, Ontario K2P 1H7 (Golden Triangle) |
🔗 | $2,349,000 | 4 Bed / 4 Bath |
© 2026 HAUS COLLECTION REALTY LIMITED. ALL WORLDWIDE RIGHTS RESERVED. ALL MATERIAL PRESENTED HEREIN IS INTENDED FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. WHILE, THIS INFORMATION IS BELIEVED TO BE CORRECT, IT IS REPRESENTED SUBJECT TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, CHANGES OR WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS INFORMATION IS BASED ON DATA FROM THE OTTAWA REAL ESTATE BOARD AND INTERPRETED BY HAUS COLLECTION REALTY LIMITED. DATA HAS BEEN LIMITED TO SALES REPORTED WITHIN THE CITY OF OTTAWA BOUNDARY. IF YOUR PROPERTY IS CURRENTLY LISTED WITH ANOTHER REAL ESTATE BROKER, OR YOUR ARE UNDER A BUYER REPRESENTATION CONTRACT WITH ANOTHER REAL ESTATE BROKER, PLEASE DISREGARD THIS OFFER. IT IS NOT OUR INTENTION TO SOLICIT THE OFFERINGS OF OTHER REAL ESTATE BROKERS.
