Ottawa Real Estate: September 2025 Insights and Findings
September traditionally ushers in the fall real estate season in Ottawa, often marked by renewed buyer activity and an uptick in listings after the quieter summer months. This year, however, the data suggests a different story: while activity under $2 million remains steady, we are beginning to see signs of slowing momentum across the broader market. Inventory levels are climbing, absorption is easing, and the luxury segment continues to face headwinds. For both buyers and sellers, September’s performance underscores the importance of strategy, timing, and pricing discipline.
Under $2 Million: Shifting from Balanced to Cautious
The under-$2 million range still dominates Ottawa’s market, but September’s numbers reflect a pullback in absorption compared to the summer. We recorded 697 freehold transactions, down from 746 in August, alongside 247 condominium transactions, also down from 269 the prior month
Absorption tells us a bit more about the shifting dynamic:
Freeholds: September posted a 41.89% absorption rate with 2.39 months of inventory, compared to August’s healthier 61.15% and 1.64 months.
Condos: The absorption rate slipped to 35.39% with 2.83 months of inventory, a decline from August’s 51.63% and 1.94 months
This shift signals that buyers are becoming more cautious, even in the traditionally active fall season. The market remains functional, but homes are taking longer to sell and buyers have more leverage to negotiate. Selectivity, which defined August, has now matured into outright patience.
Luxury Market Over $2 Million: A Flicker of Activity Amid Growing Inventory
In the luxury tier, September showed 10 properties over $2 million going under contract, more than doubling August’s four transactions. On the surface, this is an encouraging sign but context matters. Median list price for these contracts came in at $2.624 million, with median days on market at 17, indicating that buyers are quick to move when pricing is competitive.
Highlighting this were two contracts: 5572 Carrison Drive, Manotick, last offered at $3.295M, and 25 Kaymar Drive, Beacon Hill, at $2.995M. Both reflect a focus on properties that offer value within Ottawa’s established luxury communities.
That said, inventory continues to build. September brought 64 new luxury listings, bringing total inventory to 142 units. With months of inventory now at 14.2 and absorption at 7.04%, the luxury space remains firmly in buyer’s market territory. Among the most notable new entries were:
525 Piccadilly Avenue, Wellington Village ($5.999M, 7 bed / 6 bath)
45 Crescent Heights, Dows Lake/Glebe ($5M, 5 bed / 4 bath)
This wave of new listings highlights how competitive the high-end segment has become. Sellers face more choice and longer timelines, while buyers enjoy unmatched leverage.
Reading the Market
September’s numbers suggest Ottawa’s under‑$2M market is shifting from balance to caution. Compared with August’s brisk absorption, transactions slowed and inventory climbed. This is not unique to our city. In its September housing update, RBC Economics observed that lower interest rates helped existing‑home sales reach their highest level this year, but a swelling inventory continues to weigh on prices, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia. Scotiabank’s Housing News Flash reported that national sales edged up in August while new listings rose even faster, pushing the sales‑to‑new‑listings ratio down to about 51%. Months of inventory are now above their pre‑pandemic norm and the national home‑price index is still slipping. In other words, the softer September absorption we’re seeing in Ottawa echoes a broader national trend.
Regional differences matter. RBC Economics points out that market conditions remain balanced or tight in the Prairies, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, while Ontario and BC are firmly buyer‑friendly because of elevated supply. Another RBC report notes that early signs of recovery, particularly in Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal, are offset by continuing price declines in markets where inventory has piled up. For Ottawa, these cross‑currents translate into more selection and bargaining power for buyers as we head into the fall. Sellers who price accurately and offer standout value will still succeed, but patience will be required.
Economic Backdrop and Buyer Mindset
The broader economic landscape underscores why buyers remain cautious despite cheaper mortgages. On September 17, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%. The central bank cited a 1.5% drop in GDP, a 27% plunge in exports and a rising unemployment rate, now around 7.1%, as reasons for acting Inflation sits near target, so policymakers decided to shore up growth. While lower borrowing costs will support demand, RBC Economics warns that the boost from earlier rate cuts is fading and wage growth is slowing. Slack in the labour market is eroding purchasing power, especially in Ontario.
TD Economics adds that Canada has shed more than 100 000 jobs this year, with Ontario absorbing the bulk of the losses. Although TD expects the unemployment rate to drift lower once labour‑force growth slows, they note that pent‑up demand in BC and Ontario will likely drive the next leg of housing activity, while the Prairies, Quebec and Atlantic provinces remain relatively firm. Meanwhile, RBC’s affordability report finds that homeownership costs have improved for six straight quarters but cautions that progress will slow as income growth decelerates. Scotiabank’s August flash reinforces that recovery in home prices won’t take hold until market conditions tighten; at present, roughly a quarter of markets, mostly in BC and Ontario, favour buyers.
For Ottawa buyers, this mix of cheaper financing and economic uncertainty encourages deliberation rather than urgency. Sellers, particularly in the luxury segment, must be strategic in emphasizing value and pricing discipline to attract a pool of buyers who remain selective in a market still tilting toward caution.
| September 2025 | Ottawa Signed Contracts Contracts Signed Over $2 Million |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Address | View | Last Asking Price | Details |
| 1 |
5572 Carrison Drive, Manotick, Ontario K4M 1K7 (Manotick) |
🔗 | $3,295,000 | 5 Bed / 5 Bath |
| 2 |
25 Kaymar Drive, Ottawa, Ontario K1J 7C8 (Beacon Hill) |
🔗 | $2,995,000 | 5 Bed / 5 Bath |
| September 2025 | Ottawa New Listings New Listings Over $2 Million |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Address | View | List Price | Details |
| 1 |
525 Piccadilly Avenue, Ottawa, Ontario K1Y 0H7 (Wellington Village) |
🔗 | $5,999,900 | 7 Bed / 6 Bath |
| 2 |
45 Crescent Heights, Ottawa, Ontario K1S 3G7 (Dows Lake/Glebe) |
🔗 | $5,000,000 | 5 Bed / 4 Bath |
© 2025 HAUS COLLECTION REALTY LIMITED. ALL WORLDWIDE RIGHTS RESERVED. ALL MATERIAL PRESENTED HEREIN IS INTENDED FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. WHILE, THIS INFORMATION IS BELIEVED TO BE CORRECT, IT IS REPRESENTED SUBJECT TO ERRORS, OMISSIONS, CHANGES OR WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT NOTICE. THIS INFORMATION IS BASED ON DATA FROM THE OTTAWA REAL ESTATE BOARD AND INTERPRETED BY HAUS COLLECTION REALTY LIMITED. DATA HAS BEEN LIMITED TO SALES REPORTED WITHIN THE CITY OF OTTAWA BOUNDARY. IF YOUR PROPERTY IS CURRENTLY LISTED WITH ANOTHER REAL ESTATE BROKER, OR YOUR ARE UNDER A BUYER REPRESENTATION CONTRACT WITH ANOTHER REAL ESTATE BROKER, PLEASE DISREGARD THIS OFFER. IT IS NOT OUR INTENTION TO SOLICIT THE OFFERINGS OF OTHER REAL ESTATE BROKERS.
